Time Series Forecasting with Prophet: An High Level mini-Guide and Optimization Tips

Prophet is a time series forecasting library developed by Facebook. It is designed to provide an easy-to-use and intuitive framework for forecasting time series data.

HIGH LEVEL OVERVIEW

The underlying model in Prophet combines trend estimation, seasonality modeling, and holiday effects to capture various components of the time series.

1. Trend Estimation:
Prophet starts by estimating the overall trend in the time series. It models the trend as a non-linear function that can be either logistic, growth or piecewise linear. The trend captures the long-term behavior and direction of the time series.

2. Seasonality Modeling:
Prophet accounts for seasonal patterns in the data. It identifies recurring patterns, such as weekly, monthly, or yearly seasonality, and incorporates them into the forecasting model. Prophet uses Fourier series to model seasonality, which allows it to capture both short-term and long-term seasonal effects.

3. Holiday Effects:
Prophet can handle holiday effects, which are often present in time series data. It allows you to specify custom holidays and their impact on the time series. Prophet includes these holidays as…